广东省县级建设用地集约利用综合评价——以紫金县为例

基于评价指标的权重和隶属度值构建了广东省紫金县建设用地集约利用水平测度模型,运用最大相容类原则实现了建设用地集约利用水平的模糊识别分类,并通过将城镇及独立工矿区人均建设用地、农村居民点人均建设用地与国家2007年颁布的镇规划用地标准进行比较,测算了2005年广东省紫金县建设用地集约利用潜力.结果表明：2005年紫金县建设用地集约利用水平测度值为0.421,处于低效粗放利用阶段;理论上全县可减少555.69～2197.69 hm²的建设用地,集约利用潜力较大.     

生态贫困视角下的贫困县多维贫困综合度量

作为国家扶贫开发决策实施的重要单元,贫困县贫困程度及其致贫原因的识别和评估是国家“精准扶贫”战略实施的前提和保障.本文从生态贫困的视角,设计了顾及自然环境-经济-社会可持续协调发展的县级别多维贫困度量指标体系,构建基于贫困指数-最小方差模型(PI-MVM)的县级多维贫困度量模型,以6个连片特困区的249个县为典型研究区,系统揭示片区-县级层面上的贫困程度、致贫原因及其空间分布特征.结果显示: 各片区的综合贫困程度由北向南逐渐加重,各片区县存在“从北向南、从东到西,贫困程度逐渐加重”的趋势;乌蒙片区西部、秦巴片区西北部各县贫困程度的高-高聚集现象突出;秦巴中南部以及乌蒙片区受自然环境因素影响较大,贫困程度较深.一般致贫型片区县较多,主导致贫型片区县聚集在贫困程度较低的片区;经济因素对贫困的缓解作用逐渐下降,自然环境、社会发展因素的影响逐渐明显.研究结果可以更加精准地全面把握贫困县的贫困区划特征,为指导研究区早日脱贫提供辅助决策技术支撑.     

Inter- and intra-rater reliability of 3D kinematics during maximum mouth opening of asymptomatic subjects

Previous studies evaluated 3D human jaw movements using kinematic analysis systems during mouth opening, but information on the reliability of such measurements is still scarce. The purpose of this study was to analyze within- and between-session reliabilities, inter-rater reliability, standard error of measurement (SEM), minimum detectable change (MDC) and consistency of agreement across raters and sessions of 3D kinematic variables during maximum mouth opening (MMO). Thirty-six asymptomatic subjects from both genders were evaluated on two different days, five to seven days apart. Subjects performed three MMO movements while kinematic data were collected. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), SEM and MDC were calculated for all variables, and Bland-Altman plots were constructed. Jaw radius and width were the most reproducible variables (ICC > 0.81) and demonstrated minor error. Incisor displacement during MMO and angular movements in the sagittal plane presented good reliability (ICC from 0.61 to 0.8) and small errors and, consequently, could be used in future studies with the same methodology and population. The variables with smaller amplitudes (condylar translations during mouth opening and closing and mandibular movements on the frontal and transversal planes) were less reliable (ICC < 0.61) and presented larger SEM and MDC. Although ICC, SEM and MDC showed less between-session reproducibility than within-session and inter-rater, the limits of agreement were larger in inter-rater comparisons. In future studies care must be taken with variables collected on different days and with mandibular movements in the frontal and transversal planes.     

Measurement analysis of two radials with a common‐origin point and its application

In spectral analysis, a chemical component is usually identified by its characteristic spectra, especially the peaks. If two components have overlapping spectral peaks, they are generally considered to be indiscriminate in current analytical chemistry textbooks and related literature. However, if the intensities of the overlapping major spectral peaks are additive, and have different rates of change with respect to variations in the concentration of the individual components, a simple method, named the ‘common‐origin ray’, for the simultaneous determination of two components can be established. Several case studies highlighting its applications are presented.     

Cortical bone mapping: An application to hand and foot bones in hominoids

Bone form reflects both the genetic profile and behavioural history of an individual. As cortical bone is able to remodel in response to mechanical stimuli, interspecific differences in cortical bone thickness may relate to loading during locomotion or manual behaviours during object manipulation. Here, we test the application of a novel method of cortical bone mapping to the third metacarpal (Mc3) and talus of Pan, Pongo, and Homo. This method of analysis allows measurement of cortical thickness throughout the bone, and as such is applicable to elements with complex morphology. In addition, it allows for registration of each specimen to a canonical surface, and identifies regions where cortical thickness differs significantly between groups. Cortical bone mapping has potential for application to palaeoanthropological studies; however, due to the complexity of correctly registering homologous regions across varied morphology, further methodological development would be advantageous.     

Use of Bayesian analysis with individual‐based modeling to project outcomes of coral restoration

Various approaches to coral restoration have been developed to help increase rate of reef recovery from perturbations, among the most common of which is coral transplantation. Success is often evaluated based on short‐term observations that capture only the initial phase of space colonization by coral transplants. Here, an individual‐based model is developed to quantify uncertainty in future trajectories in experimental plots given past observations. Empirical data were used to estimate probabilistic growth, survival, and fission rates of Acropora pulchra and A. intermedia (order Scleractinia) in a sandy reef flat (Bolinao, Philippines). Simulations were initialized with different densities (25 or 50 transplants per species per 16 m²) to forecast possible coral cover trajectories over a 5‐year period. Given current conditions, there is risk of local extinction which is higher in low‐density plots for both species, and higher for A. intermedia compared to A. pulchra regardless of density. While total coral cover is projected to increase, species composition in the future is more likely to be highly uneven. The model was used to quantify effect on recovery rate of protection from pulse anthropogenic disturbances, given different initial transplantation densities. When monitoring data are limited in time, stochastic models may be used to assess whether the restoration trajectory is heading toward the desired state and at what rate, and foresee system response to various adaptive interventions.     

A robust fuzzy stochastic programming model for the design of a reliable green closed-loop supply chain network

Recently, governmental legislations, limitation of natural resources and adverse effects of End-of-Life products on ecological system have spurred researchers to design closed-loop supply chains (CLSCs). Accordingly, designing green supply chains (SCs) that manage greenhouse gas emissions and prevent air pollution can be helpful for companies to heighten profitability and customer loyalty, besides, uncertainty of parameters and disruption strikes could adversely affect performance of SCs and lower quality of output decisions. Effective planning prevents great losses and increases reliability of manager's decisions against uncertainties. Therefore, this paper is proceeding to design a reliable bi-objective green CLSC that minimizes total costs of network aside with minimizing harmful gas emissions. The proposed model is capable of controlling adverse effects of disruptions via applying scenario-based stochastic programming approach. Also, an effective hybrid robust fuzzy stochastic programming method is extended to effectively control uncertainty of parameters and risk-aversion level of output decisions. Extended model analyzing is based on lead-acid battery SC case study that output results approve applicability and effectiveness of model.     

四川省农业生态系统能值评价及动态计量分析

农业生态系统是人类生存的最基本系统,对其结构和功能进行分析是破解农业生态环境问题的关键.本文应用能值分析理论并借助数据包络分析法、协整检验、误差修正模型等经济计量方法,对1997-2009年四川省及其21个地级市农业生态系统的运行动态、环境承载情况、运行效率、投入产出关系进行定量分析.结果表明： 研究期间,四川省处在由传统农业向现代农业过渡阶段,农业机械化水平不断提高,资源利用效率不断加强,结构优势度总体情况较好,而过度依赖经济能值的投入使系统可持续性能力逐年减弱;区域间农业生态系统发展状况的差异较大,成都平原区和川西高原区要么资源开发过度,要么资源利用不足,而四川丘陵地区农业生态系统富有活力和发展潜力,属于四川农业未来发展的重点区域;四川省农业生态系统总体运行效率较低,各地状况不一,既包括技术效率较低因素,也有规模不当的原因;四川省农业生态系统经济能值指标与产出能值之间存在长期均衡动态关系,但短期内的能值投入远未达到理想的产出状态.